BearSignal reads the entire U.S. and Hong Kong listed universe and surfaces the companies whose own numbers cannot all be true. We do it deterministically, and we show our work — every flag exposes the exact figures and the thresholds they crossed. This page explains the method and why it is defensible.
The machine reads at scale; analysts confirm and judge. No watchlist, no sampling, no ranking by opinion.
Continuously read every U.S. and Hong Kong listed company — SEC EDGAR and HKEX filings, financial history, ownership records — reconstructed into a comparable financial picture per company, per fiscal period.
Run each company through independent forensic dimensions that test whether its own figures can all be true at once — accruals vs. cash, ratios vs. peers, price vs. fundamentals, disclosure clarity. A contradiction fires only on an absolute threshold, never on rank or opinion.
A gray flag is a starting point for investigation, not a conclusion. Every flag is reviewed and judged by analysts, and evidence is anchored to source filings, before any thesis is published.
A hard contradiction is rarely one number — it is a healthy-looking headline that several independent forensic lenses disagree with at once. Each dimension is computed from the company's own filings, with a fixed formula and an absolute threshold. When a dimension crosses its threshold, the exact value and direction are recorded.
How much of reported earnings is driven by accruals rather than cash. Earnings that outrun cash flow are lower-persistence and a classic contradiction signal.
A composite of accrual, margin, and leverage ratios. An elevated profile is consistent with an earnings-management-like pattern — surfaced for review, never asserted as intent.
The distance of a company's whole financial vector from its peer distribution. A large distance means the company is a statistical outlier against comparable firms.
Where market pricing diverges from the fundamental signal — the tape and the books telling different stories.
The readability of the annual-report narrative. Extreme obfuscation correlates with disclosure risk — clarity is a feature, not a footnote.
The dimensions combine through a martingale e-process with a false-positive certificate — so the bar to raise a flag is statistically controlled, not a hand-set score.
We never ask you to trust a score. Every gray flag shows the exact figure on each dimension that fired, the threshold it crossed, the direction, and the fiscal filing it came from — frozen at the moment of the flag (point-in-time). Below is the shape of what a gray-flag detail shows (illustrative).
Fixed formulas and absolute thresholds. The same filings produce the same flag — no rank, no opinion, no after-the-fact tuning.
Each flag records the values exactly as they stood when it fired — what we saw, when we saw it, auditable later.
Every contradiction is anchored to the source filing and fiscal period, built to withstand scrutiny.
The engine reads at scale; analysts confirm and judge before any thesis is published. A flag is the start of work, not the end.
The full forensic files — with the per-dimension figures behind each gray flag — are open to qualified institutions. Request access and we will be in touch.
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